September 9, 2021
As we enter the Fall, elections are ramping up in parts of the United States and some Western European countries who have frequently been targets of online misinformation and disinformation campaigns originating from Russia. Predictably and unfortunately, we’re already witnessing worrying signs of the threats these democratic processes are facing.
In a real test case for how aggressive Russia is prepared to be in the cyber realm vis-a-vis elections, Germany’s current political landscape is seeing indications of serious interference from Moscow. German voters go to the polls later this month, on September 26th, in parliamentary elections that will determine the country’s next chancellor (in an extraordinary situation where, for the first time since 1949, there is not an incumbent chancellor on the ballot). There are a number of issues at stake in this election that impact Moscow, including energy pipelines, the future of NATO, and Moscow’s incursions into its neighboring countries.
A growing body of evidence indicates that Russia is taking a familiar two-pronged approach toward its meddling in the German political system, similar to what it has done in the United States: first, to use its affiliated media networks to openly promote propaganda and false information about democratic processes with the goal of sowing doubt among voters, and second, to covertly steal information through offensive cyber attacks against prominent political figures with the goal of embarrassing them ahead of the election.
The first tactic, that of Russian media organizations promoting false and damaging narratives to cause political chaos, is thriving in Germany today. Much of Moscow’s work in this space is done by Russia Today’s German outlet, RT Deutsch. This media group is backed by the Kremlin and works to promote the Russian Government’s policy positions and spread its propaganda. (The Justice Department in 2017 essentially forced RT to register as a foreign agent operating in the United States, for example, underscoring its real purpose as an arm of Moscow and not a free and independent media outlet.)
In addition to sowing doubt about democratic processes in general, RT Deutsch has been pushing disinformation about the COVID-19 vaccines, highlighting a trend I’ve written about previously in which anti-democratic online forces are focused not just on elections but also on weakening trust in institutions more broadly, such as health care professionals. RT has also been promoting positive stories about the far-right German party, the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), which it sees as more favorable to Moscow’s point of view, a threat to more anti-Russian parties, and a disruptor in the German political system.
(Relatedly, the AfD has also propagated false narratives about the security of mail-in voting, a tactic we’ve seen used in the United States. Some outside European observers have expressed concern about Germany’s ability to manage the increase in this kind of voting, on the rise because of the pandemic. Russia, of course, is happy to help push this misinformation.)
We already saw Russia testing these tactics out earlier this year. In advance of and after a regional German contest in June, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (a UK-based think tank) tracked significant far-right German online disinformation campaigns working in concert with Russian-backed media organizations, who amplified and spread that bad information far and wide. Analysts believe the same tactics will be utilized by these groups on a much larger scale around the upcoming national elections.
Russia’s efforts appear to be working, at least in terms of the number of eyeballs they’re garnering. According to experts at the German Marshall Fund, “In 2021, RT Deutsch has been the third most retweeted media account in Germany out of all traditional and foreign media, coming in after Bild and Welt. RT Deutsch publishes more tweets and gets more retweets than well-known outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung and the Frankfurter Allgemeine.”
Turning briefly to the second, covert tactic that Russia uses to meddle in elections — stealing information and releasing it strategically to hurt perceived anti-Moscow candidates — the German government is already firing warning shots across its bow. Just this week, German Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Andrea Sasse said there had been a rise in phishing attacks on prominent politicians and that a hacking conglomerate called Ghostwriter, whose activity can be attributed to “cyber-actors of the Russian state,” was responsible. She said Russia must immediately cease these illegal activities and that “the German government considers this unacceptable action a threat to the security of the Federal Republic of Germany and to the democratic decision-making process and a serious burden on bilateral relations.”
Earlier this summer, the German intelligence service also noted an increase in attacks by Ghostwriter, assessing they could be a prelude to a public leak campaign designed to influence the elections.
The good news is that there are countless analysts and organizations (both governmental and non-governmental) who are laser-focused on this issue and tracking this kind of nefarious activity. We will see how Germany’s robust democracy weathers these storms and what they might portend for elections here in the U.S. this Fall (in states such as Virginia) and ahead of the midterm elections in 2022.
Marie Harf
International Elections Analyst, USC Election Cybersecurity Initiative
Marie Harf is a strategist who has focused her career on promoting American foreign policy to domestic audiences. She has held senior positions at the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency, worked on political campaigns for President Barack Obama and Congressman Seth Moulton, and served as a cable news commentator. Marie has also been an Instructor at the University of Pennsylvania and a Fellow at Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service.